SIGNAL关注 11

spetember022016

2016年夏季显露出以色列和逊尼派阿拉伯世界的关系将发生重大转变的迹象。这些事件并非是中东地区局势发展的催化剂,而是其结果。中国的“十三五规划”强调了建立各部门合作机制的重要性,以此来推动它们之间的关系,该规划若能顺利实施,就足以维护地区稳定,降低投资环境的风险,顺利实现“一带一路”倡议的核心目标。此外,考虑到中国在中东地区的整体利益,以及中国希望“一带一路”倡议能够延伸并贯穿中东各国的考量,以色列和逊尼派阿拉伯国家关系的改善对中国来说是十分有利的。

为了阐明这些新发展的内涵,本期“SIGNAL关注”聚焦于以色列—沙特阿拉伯关系在近期的转变,沙以紧密关系背后所蕴含的意义,以及沙以关系对“一带一路”倡议和中以关系的潜在影响等方面。本文主要以两大重要事件为切入点,来观察沙以关系的转变及其对中国的影响。

2016年7月22日,安瓦尔·以斯奇将军(居中者)访问以色列外交部


安瓦尔·以斯奇将军访问以色列

2016年7月22日,安瓦尔·以斯奇将军(Gen Anwar Eshki)访问以色列,会见了以色列议会中的反对派以及外交部的高层代表团。沙特国防部精英人士的访以活动实为罕见,这也预示着被雪藏已久的沙特和平倡议有得以重启的可能,在此背景下,以色列的决策层认为这是一次重要的机遇,即在推动巴以和平进程的局限之外,与区域竞争对手开展合作。访问中,以斯奇将军表示,沙特愿与以色列建立多领域的合作,甚至包括重要的情报交换和技术交流。

华盛顿近东政策研究所在2016年5月5日举办的一项重要的公共对话活动为以斯奇将军的访以拉开了序幕。其中,最重要的事情就是已退役的以色列少将雅科夫·阿米德洛尔(Ya’akov Amidror)在演讲中提到了沙特的和平倡议、沙以两国关系正常化以及未来两国更广泛的合作。

According to Gen Ya’akov Amidror “Sunni countries fear Iran’s growing power over a Shiite bloc, which threatens the security as well as the unity of the Sunni states…These countries are looking for someone to help them at this time of need. Israel is the only country in the area whose stability is not in question. It is a strong country, both economically and militarily, and it has the ability and willingness to defend its essential interests. This is the foundation for the blossoming relationships between Israel and these Sunni countries – classic status quo countries in an ever-shifting region that are looking for an anchor with which to stabilize themselves.”

2016年5月5日,安瓦尔·以斯奇将军(图左)和雅科夫·阿米德洛尔将军

沙特新闻界与反犹主义的转变

继以斯奇将军访以之后,沙特新闻界也随即开始减少并弱化国内关于反犹主义的相关报道,以此试图重塑犹太人/以色列在中东及其其他地区的角色和影响。沙特此举是为与以色列建立更为广泛的合作打牢基础,并试图将两国之间的合作从影响力较大的精英阶层扩展至普通的沙特民众之中。

沙特媒体界为迎合这一新目标,开始调整其叙述方式。例如,沙特专栏作家卡赫塔尼(Al-Qahtani)说:“《古兰经》里将犹太人比作杀害先知的刽子手、异教徒、战争贩子和放高利贷者的叙述,仅仅适用于某个特定时期的部分特定群体。”但是,对于犹太人的此类定义并非建立在现实基础之上,而是为了实现特定的政治和宗教目的,这种讽刺手法为自以色列建国以来的反以政策提供了充分的理由。这种认为一定期间内上述讽刺真实存在的说法,与先前被广为接受的犹太人应当是被唾骂的身份形成了鲜明对比。新闻报导的转变意味着沙特想要将早前被误导的阿拉伯世界的以色列和犹太形象去神秘化。总之,通过重塑犹太人的形象,沙特新闻界为与以色列之间进行富有成效、全面深入的合作奠定了基础。

2016年6月4日,安瓦尔·以斯奇将军(图左)与以色列外交部总干事多尔·戈尔德将军

它与中国有何关联?

作为中国最大的能源供应国,沙特的一举一动对中国的经济发展都有着重要影响。通过引进吸收以色列关键的、尖端的技术,沙特可以更有效地满足中国日益增长的能源需求。通过沙特和以色列之间加强情报合作,中国能够确保其巨大的能源储备更为稳定,降低风险进而为中国消费者降低成本。最重要的是,沙以合作的增强能够为中东地区的发展提供一个较安全、低风险的投资环境。

从长远来看,以色列和沙特之间加强高层对话本身及其对其他逊尼派国家所产生的影响,有助于“一带一路”倡议的更顺利实施。通过更为全面的政策合作和两国高层精英之间联系的发展有助于高层对话机制的实现。总而言之,随着中国在中东地区政策的持续开展,一个更为稳定的中东和各国间更为紧密的联系对中国来说是至关重要的。

对中以关系有何影响?

以色列继续寻求重要的区域伙伴,逐渐超越其传统的外交伙伴——美国和西欧。以色列和沙特关系的转变,为中以关系的发展减少了政治色彩,降低了外交反弹的可能性。随着中东地区紧张局势的化解,中国可以将以色列的关键成就和创新方法运用于从能源管理到效率效能及其他等重要行业之上。

以“一带一路”倡议为例,不断提升的沙以关系能够降低核心经济走廊的安全风险。沙特与以色列的合作有助于在地区动荡下保护好至关重要的能源安全。通过与区域伙伴建立强有力的、持久的联盟关系,以色列成为相互交织的国际社会中的重要一员,也为中国的工业发展和风险投资提供了更为安全的投资环境。此外,沙以之间的亲密关系能够为许多能源和非能源问题提供具有创造性的解决方案,为重要的中国合作伙伴在关键的资源方面降低成本。

Addendum

This SIGNAL Note has addressed the implications of Israel’s increased relevance to China as it cultivates partners in the region. In the time since the Note was composed, two significant events have occurred that represent tangible value to the Chinese market.

In the case of the UAE, increased engagement with Israel includes security cooperation to technological advancements. These have led to a large investment by the UAE in the Israeli-based water desalinization company Desilitech. There are a number of reasons the UAE has begun to look past its historical animosity towards Israel: In forming stronger strategic bonds with Israel through technology and innovation, the UAE can facilitate urgently needed better water management policy. Additionally, the UAE has come to realize that integration of Israeli technology decreases negative environmental outcomes of industrial production.

The Saudis are realizing what their counterparts in the UAE discovered about Israel’s value to them. This is reflected in tectonic shifts taking place in the Saudi media. Instead of demonizing Israel, steps are being taking to present the Jews of Israel as normal people like in any other country. According to Yasser Hilazi, a prominent Saudi journalist “eliminating the anti-Semitic discourse was a step towards drying up the sources of terrorism as well as western arguments against Islam.” Through greater cooperation, Dr. Ibrahim Al-Matroudi projects a future where Saudi Arabia can “overcome the hostilities towards the Jews and benefit from their experiences and successes.” Al-Matroudi even suggest closer ties with Israel would build logical regional bonds, which until recently were overlooked in favor of broader alliances with distance nations like Japan.

In the broader Arab world, the model of removing the negative stigma connected to Israel has begun to show its value in international forums. Unlike in many gatherings of the International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA), in the recent meeting it refrained from any vote about Israel. In a conscious shift of historic trends Arab states abstained from any criticism of Israel in the IAEA. This decrease in pressure against Israel is a result of the improved strategic relations with Arab states. In these two cases, trends in the Arab world show that tangible value is outweighing historical ideology. This in turn helps promote a more stable Middle East.

Published: 02-09-2016